Investors pile into gold as Trump's tariff turmoil continues

The price of gold has soared to another record peak, fuelled by concern over President Donald Trump's tariff strategy and a weakening dollar, leading investors towards the traditional sanctuary of precious metals.

Gold's value ascended 1.5% to surpass $3,200 (£2,451) per troy ounce on Friday – an unprecedented level – as Asian markets stumbled due to the ongoing repercussions of President Trump's deferred tariff measures, as reported by City AM.

Despite its status as a refuge for capital during turbulent times, the precious metal had initially been swept up in a severe sell-off amid tariff-driven market chaos.

Gold spot prices experienced a remarkable increase of over 30% since the beginning of 2024 but witnessed a downturn from $3,166/oz to $2,973/oz from April 2 to April 6. Market experts believe that investors were compelled to sell their gold assets to cover margin calls from creditors.

Pepperstone analyst Michael Brown pointed to the removal of the "risk premium" associated with gold after its exclusion from the postponed tariffs Trump labeled ‘Liberation Day’ as the cause of the brief dip.

Nevertheless, from April 6 onward, gold has bounced back robustly, registering its most significant bi-day surge since 2020 and reaching a new all-time high.

Market strategists have attributed this latest rally to the faltering US dollar – which renders the metal more accessible to buyers using other currencies – and predictions that central banks might accelerate interest rate cuts more than previously presumed to prevent an economic deceleration.

This week has seen the dollar descend to its lowest level against major global currencies in a decade.

Dominic Schinder of UBS Global Wealth informed Bloomberg TV that further rate cuts from the Federal Reserve would provide another "leg up" for gold, as the yield on holding cash – a common refuge amid prevalent bearish sentiment – is lower.

This rally boosted London-listed gold miners, leading the FTSE 100 higher on Friday morning. Fresnillo saw an increase of approximately 5.9 per cent, while Endeavour experienced a surge of over 4.5 per cent in early trades.

Brokers at Peel Hunt upgraded precious-metal-miner Fresnillo from 'hold' to 'add' in a note, suggesting that sustained high gold and silver prices would generate more cash flow at the commodities giant.

"[The first quarter] saw gold and silver prices well ahead of expectations on rising market uncertainty," they noted. "The extreme US tariff announcements simply added to this uncertainty.

Newcastle recruitment company Lead Candidate launches own drive for new employees

A Newcastle recruitment company has launched its own drive for more staff on the back of growth in the bioscience sector. Lead Candidate was launched in 2020 when its founders, Raman Sehgal, Fiona Cruickshank and Andrew Mears, saw a need for a better talent solution in the life sciences industry. The solution was to create a talent consultancy that champions partnership, offering strategic advice to help business and individuals in the region and beyond to achieve their goals. Last year saw the business reach significant milestones in which it trebled in size, hired a vice president to be its first US-based team member, and its also moved into a brand new Newcastle city centre head office at 8 Nelson Street – the former Cafe Royal building that is also home to Mowgli restaurant and which has undergone a £1.5m makeover. This year, the business is looking to grow 30% further, allowing it to create several new jobs. Andrew Mears, CEO and co-founder, said: “Lead Candidate was created out of a commitment from its founders to unlock the potential of organisations through people and a recognition that the solutions available to businesses in our sector hadn’t kept pace with the market. Today our team of experts are working with customers across the US and Europe to make a positive impact on the careers of individuals and the amazing businesses that occupy the life sciences outsourcing sector. “It’s an exciting time for us, and these developments enable us to better serve our current and future customers around the globe. With no plans to slow down, we’re aiming to grow a further 30% in 2025, which will create several new employment opportunities in the North East. Right now, we’re looking for multiple talent partners and a customer development manager to join us in transforming the talent landscape.” The firm specialises in a niche area of life sciences, working with organisations that provide outsourced support to the pharma and bio sectors. The outsourcing companies offer services across the entire process of bringing medicines to the patients that need them. Mr Mears says the region’s rich expertise within bio sciences places the company well for future growth. He said: “While the pharma and bio outsourcing sector is niche, it’s a fast-growing market. Although we’re based in the North East Lead Candidate operates globally, partnering with companies all over the world, with a particular focus on the US and Europe. We support our partners in recruiting talent at all levels and functions, from entry-level lab scientists to key C-suite appointments. "The North East is home to an active life sciences sector, with major organisations such as CPI, who we’ve supported in the past, Sterling Pharma, and Quotient Sciences. There’s also a thriving biotech industry, with hubs like the Biosphere at the Newcastle Helix providing laboratory space for life science innovation and R&D in the region. “We’re also lucky to be surrounded by some top-tier academic institutions like Newcastle University, Northumbria University, the University of Sunderland, and Durham University. These institutions play a pivotal role in feeding and expanding the local life sciences community, with a thriving start-up community spinning out of academia.” While poised for growth, Mr Mears added that challenges are evident in the North East. He said: “There is significant optimism in the industry, driven by anticipated revenue growth due to market expansion. However, there are still challenges in terms of funding gaps. Many companies in the region struggle to secure the financial backing that would allow them to scale. The North East is also impacted by a lack of Government-backed funding which limits growth and opportunities for local businesses. Despite the presence of several prestigious academic institutions, a skills shortage still exists with demand outweighing the available talent. “Recently, we have seen businesses founded in the region move out of the area to more attractive life sciences hubs in the North West and South of the country due to improved access to funding and skills.”

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US dollar on the longest losing streak since 2015 as de-dollarisation fears grow

The US dollar has plummeted 0.7% today, marking its fifth consecutive day of decline, as the market reevaluates the currency's standing in the global economy. The DXY index, which monitors the dollar's value relative to a basket of currencies, sank to its lowest level in three years during trading today, as reported by City AM. Since the beginning of April, which Trump hailed as 'Liberation Day,' the dollar index has dropped by more than 4% as investors offload their US assets amid concerns over the country's growth prospects. In a statement on Friday evening, President Trump emphasized that the dollar would invariably remain "the currency of choice" and asserted that "if a nation said we're not going to be on the dollar, I would tell you that within about one phone call they would be back on the dollar". However, Michael Brown, senior research strategist at Pepperstone, cautioned about the risk "of moving away from a decades-long period of dollar and US hegemony." Brown acknowledged that currently, there is no alternative to the dollar as a reserve currency, and the tariffs that shook confidence in the dollar last week have been temporarily suspended. "However, the incoherence with which economic policy is being made, coupled with the credibility erosion caused by president Trump's constant u-turns and 'governing by tweet' modus operandi, is clearly creating more than a few jitters," the strategist noted. Brown conceded that there was no alternative to the dollar as a reserve currency for now and that the tariffs which shook confidence in the dollar last week had been put on hold for the time being. "Fundamentally, even though the ridiculous 'reciprocal' tariffs have been paused (for now), the prospect of those levies being imposed again will continue to linger. "De-dollarisation is now a real, and frankly scary, prospect," Brown commented. The US dollar took a hit due to imposed China tariffs, according to insights shared on Friday by ING analysts. They indicated that Trump's escalating tariffs on China contributed to the dollar's sharp decline. Since the US may find it challenging to quickly replace many of the imports from China, this could lead to heightened inflationary risks for the American currency. The euro has emerged as the biggest winner from the dollar's depreciation, achieving a five percent increase since 'Liberation Day'. It is perceived widely as one of the few options for investors moving away from US assets. ING analysts observed that officials at the European Central Bank appear to be promoting the euro as a robust alternative to the US dollar right now.

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JP Morgan boss warns trade tariffs could lead to US recession and stagflation

Jamie Dimon, chairman and chief executive of JP Morgan, has cautioned that the stringent trade restrictions imposed by President Donald Trump could steer the US economy towards recession and stagflation. Dimon's comments came ahead of the multinational investment bank's financial results, which reported a revenue of $180.6bn and a net income of $58.5bn in 2024, as reported by City AM. He lauded the bank for playing "a forceful and essential role in advancing economic growth." In the banking giant's annual report, Dimon stated: "The recent tariffs will likely increase inflation and are causing many to consider a greater probability of a recession." He added: "And even with the recent decline in market values, prices remain relatively high. These significant and somewhat unprecedented forces cause us to remain very cautious." Expanding on the risk of recession, Dimon said: "Whether or not the menu of tariffs causes a recession remains in question, but it will slow down growth." He further elaborated: "There are many uncertainties surrounding the new tariff policy: the potential retaliatory actions, including on services, by other countries, the effect on confidence, the impact on investments and capital flows, the effect on corporate profits and the possible effect on the U.S. dollar." He characterised JP Morgan Chase as "a company that historically has worked across borders and boundaries." The chief executive of the bank emphasised that the "long-term health of America, domestically, and the future of the free and democratic world" are intrinsic to the well-being of the investment bank. In a notable development, despite Trump reportedly using JPMorgan head Dimon as an informal consultant post-election as he prepared for a second term—considering him a "sounding board" for economic strategies—there appears to be a divide emerging over tariffs. Dimon remained impartial during the US presidential campaign, but there has been talk about his potential inclusion in the cabinet of either Trump or his then-rival Kamala Harris come 2024. Adding to the discourse, billionaire investor Bill Ackman has also made headlines with a stern warning on Sunday regarding Trump's trade policy, suggesting it could lead to an "economic nuclear winter."

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Wise forecasts robust growth with 21% increase in active customers and £1.4bn income

Shares in global fintech company Wise saw a six per cent increase in early trading today, following the release of preliminary figures for its current financial year on Thursday. The firm is set to provide further updates during its capital markets day. The presentation will also include updates on the current financial year, with full results due to be posted on June 5, as reported by City AM. Wise, which specialises in facilitating easy international money transfers for consumers, anticipates a 21 per cent growth in active customers to 15 million and a 16 per cent increase in underlying income. Based on these projections, the fintech firm expects to generate an income of £1.4bn in the current year. However, it predicts a one per cent drop in its profit margin. The money transfer company forecasts an underlying income growth of 15 to 20 per cent in the 2026 financial year, with pre-tax profit margins aligning with top estimates. Wise has also revealed plans to dilute its Employee Benefit Trust share purchase programme to prevent shareholder dilution from historical stock-based compensation (SBC) grants, which equate to around 25 million shares. The fintech firm reiterated its listing change following the Financial Conduct Authority's reforms to the UK listing regime in 2024. Wise's listing was moved to the Equity Shares Category in July 2024. Wise made its debut on the London Stock Exchange on July 7, 2021, and over its 14-year history, it has transferred over £0.5tn across borders. In its January quarterly trading update, the company disclosed that cross-border volumes had surged by 24 per cent to £37.8bn. The firm's accounts also saw increased adoption, driving a 39 per cent rise in card and other revenue.

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HSBC and Standard Chartered shares plummet as 'outsized' tariffs bite

Shares in banking behemoths HSBC and Standard Chartered have suffered a sharp decline amidst escalating global trade tensions. In early Monday trading, HSBC's shares dipped nearly three per cent, bringing its losses over the past five days to a staggering 15 per cent, as reported by City AM. Standard Chartered saw an even steeper fall of nearly four per cent, with its five-day losses approaching 20 per cent. The banks, which both have significant operations in Asia, are feeling the impact of hefty tariffs imposed by US President Donald Trump on Asian economies. China has been hit with a new 34 per cent tariff, raising its total import tax to 54 per cent following Trump's 'Liberation Day' speech, where he increased the levy from an earlier 20 per cent. In retaliation, China imposed a 34 per cent reciprocal tariff on US goods, criticising Trump's tactics as "inconsistent with international trade rules". Additionally, Taiwan received a 34 per cent tariff and Vietnam was burdened with a 46 per cent levy. Financial analyst William Howlett from Quilter Cheviot highlighted that banks carry some of the "biggest risks" amid the intensifying trade war. He commented: "Fundamentally, banks are levered plays on the economies in which they operate." Given the severe tariffs targeting Asian economies, Howlett noted it's no surprise that "the Asian banks (HSBC and Standard Chartered) have sold off the most." John Cronin, the founder of SeaPoint insights, pointed out that HSBC and Standard Chartered are more vulnerable than their UK counterparts to tariff issues "given their dependence on global trade glows and their presence in jurisdictions that will be subject to higher tariffs than the UK." HSBC stands as one of the top international banks in Asia, with its origins dating back to Hong Kong and Shanghai, and it covers various business segments in the region such as retail banking, wealth management, and commercial banking. Standard Chartered primarily targets emerging markets across Asia, Africa, and the Middle East, with a particular emphasis on Asia's burgeoning middle class in nations like India, China, and Indonesia by providing an array of retail services, including savings and checking accounts.

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HSBC and Barclays shares tumble as Trump's new tariffs shake up FTSE 100

Shares in Britain's leading banks plummeted in early trading on Thursday following President Trump's tariff announcement, which sent shockwaves through the London stock market. Europe's largest bank, HSBC, saw its shares tumble by over 5%, with Barclays experiencing a fall of more than 4%, as reported by City AM. Standard Chartered, a member of the FTSE 100 index, suffered the brunt of the sell-off, with its share price dropping over 7%. The FTSE 100 index itself retreated beyond 1% as the markets opened, reacting to Trump's decision to impose a 10% tariff on UK imports to the USA. Dan Coatsworth, an investment analyst at AJ Bell, commented to City AM: "With so much uncertainty around the global economy as a result of Liberation Day, it seems as if fewer investors want to own banks despite many paying generous dividends which can provide comfort during rocky market conditions." He remarked that banking is inherently tied to economic fortunes, contributing to the sector's vulnerability in the worldwide market downturn: "Banking is an economically sensitive industry, which explains why shares in the sector have been caught up in the global market sell-off." Coatsworth pointed out the specific challenges for HSBC and Standard Chartered: "Trump's tariffs are particularly punishing for various parts of Asia and that puts HSBC and Standard Chartered in the firing line given their major reliance on that part of the world." He continued to illustrate the broader implications: "Businesses will be spooked by tariffs and that could lead to reduced investment, which in turns suggests less demand to borrow from banks or for advisory services on M&A activity." Coatsworth also highlighted Brexit's impact: "The same applies to Europe and the US which are key places where Barclays does business." Barclays, HSBC and Standard Chartered all have significant operations beyond the UK, including in the US and Asia. A deceleration in global trade could result in reduced revenue for these banks due to a decreased demand for their services in facilitating international partnerships through trade finance and other financial services.

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FTSE 100 crumbles again as Trump's 'Liberation Day' tariff assault continues

The FTSE 100 had a gloomy start on Friday, still feeling the effects of Trump's 'Liberation Day' comments as it opened in negative territory. In early trading, the United Kingdom’s leading index was down by approximately 1.2%, with its mid-cap counterpart, the FTSE 250, also seeing a decline of nearly 1%, as reported by City AM. Banks were among those feeling the brunt during market opening, extending a downside pattern from Thursday's session. Natwest shares dropped over five per cent, while Barclays took a hit exceeding four per cent. Following its position as Thursday's biggest loser on the FTSE, Standard Chartered’s shares continued to wane, experiencing another fall of over four per cent. Conversely, British American Tobacco and SSE emerged as top performers in early dealings, each securing gains in the region of two per cent. Likewise, the retail giant behind Primark, Associated British Foods, saw its shares ascend over two per cent. AJ Bell’s investment director Russ Mould commented: "With markets having suffered their worst week in five years, investors were hiding under their duvet on Friday hoping the pain would go away." He went on: "Unfortunately, the relentless selling continued, with markets falling across Asia and Europe and futures prices suggesting the US will follow suit upon commencement of trade later today." Mould further remarked that "countless sectors" are poised for impact from tariffs, yet the plethora of "moving parts" presents a challenge to "know where to begin to comprehend the situation." "Investors looking to buy on the dip were spoiled for choice given the sharp declines seen on the market this week. It's now a question of when investors feel brave enough to go shopping. Today's extended sell-off implies investors are still too nervous to take the plunge," he added. On Thursday, the FTSE 100 experienced a sizeable drop, shedding 133 points and closing at 8,474.74 – a 1.6% decrease from the previous day's total. In a bold move, Trump imposed a baseline 10% import levy on all countries trading with the US during his Wednesday address, with increased rates for those classified as "worst offenders." A 10% import tariff was levied on the UK while the European Union suffered a steeper 20% hike. Commentators have noted with surprise that 'Markets appear to have been unprepared' for such trade measures. Stocks across Europe also faced a downtrend, with Germany's DAX falling 0.8%, France's CAC 40 dipping by 0.9%, and Amsterdam’s AEX index experiencing a 0.5% decline. The announcement of tariffs contributed to Wall Street recording some of its most substantial losses since 2020. On the Nasdaq Exchange, big tech firms including Apple and Nvidia saw sharp drops, declining nine and eight percent respectively. The S&P 500 was not immune to the downturn, with a near five percent fall, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average saw a four percent dive. Hargreaves Lansdown's head of equity research Derren Nathan commented: "Despite months of sabre-rattling by Donald Trump, markets appear to have been unprepared for the depth and breadth of tariffs announced by the White House." As a result of the tumult across the pond in the US and the White House's significant measure, "The FTSE 100 is set to open down a touch further, after US stocks suffered their worst day in five years."

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Gold prices dip despite safe haven status amid Trump's new tariffs and global market turmoil

Despite its status as a safe haven amidst global trade uncertainties, gold prices have seen a decline for the third consecutive session. Over the past week, gold has dropped nearly three per cent in US dollar terms, following a steady rise since the onset of 2024, as reported by City AM. This drop coincides with a worldwide slump in stock prices in the wake of US President Donald Trump's comprehensive tariffs, which economists fear could plunge the world into recession. On the day of Trump's tariff announcement, the precious metal performed robustly, momentarily reaching a new all-time high of $3,225 after the president disclosed tax figures by country, before settling back to $3,125. However, it has since pulled back, even briefly dipping below the coveted $3,000 mark this morning. The depreciation in gold prices has occurred despite a fall in the value of the US dollar against other major currencies: when measured in euros, gold has declined almost six per cent since Thursday morning. While tariffs may play a significant role, analysts at Tatton Investment Management suggest that the end of the financial year last week may have distorted gold markets due to portfolio rebalancing. Given gold's strong performance in recent months, it would have become over-represented in many stockpicker portfolios, leading to a temporary sell-off to adjust proportions, according to the investment firm's analysts. As the broader market took a hit, many investors were likely compelled to liquidate their positions in gold, resulting in downward pressure on its price. "Margin calls from brokers is likely to have exacerbated some of the market movements," offered Susannah Streeter, head of money and markets at Hargreaves Lansdown. She went on to say: "Investors using more risky margin accounts can borrow money to invest, but falls in asset prices are prompting demands they deposit more money, as the value of assets used as collateral falls." Moreover, Streeter observed that increased unease among investors has led many to cash in on profits accrued over the past year and pivot to cash holdings. Alternatively, Michael Brown, a senior research strategist at Pepperstone, attributed the decline in gold's value to the unwinding of tariff risk premium following an exemption of bullion imports from tariffs.

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HMRC sees UK firms overpaying billions in corporation tax as complex system hits businesses

UK businesses overpaid a staggering £14.2bn in corporation tax last year, a report by a prominent accountancy firm has revealed, highlighting the ongoing challenges posed by the nation's intricate financial system. Chancellor Rachel Reeves has assured entrepreneurs and investors of her support for British business, despite economic pressures from President Trump's tariffs and tax increases announced at the Autumn Budget, as reported by City AM. However, a complex tax regime is causing deep-seated issues, with many firms overpaying HMRC, as per findings by UHY Hacker Young. The accountancy firm's research, derived from a Freedom of Information request, indicates that UK companies overcompensated the government by £14.2bn in corporation tax in the year ending April, affecting approximately 400,000 businesses. The study notes that the overpayment for the fiscal year 2024 to 2025 was 21 per cent higher than the previous tax year. Corporation tax, which deducts a portion from company profits, operates on a tiered system, with the principal rate set at 25 per cent for businesses earning profits above £250,000. UHY Hacker Young's accountants argue that HMRC's approach often results in firms paying excessive corporation tax due to potential penalties if profits fall short of projections. This situation can lead to "significant cash flow problems," the researchers warn, as it falls upon companies to reclaim any overpaid funds. "Overpaying corporation tax is a double hit for struggling businesses," remarked Brian Carey, a partner at UHY Hacker Young. "Not only do they suffer from lower-than-expected profits, but they also see vital cash locked up with HMRC." This statement comes on the heels of a separate report by Thomson Reuters which highlighted that businesses now contribute to over a quarter of all UK tax receipts. The surge in corporation tax receipts has been a significant factor, with the government now collecting over £200bn through this tax. Concurrently, concerns are being raised about HMRC potentially underestimating the extent of tax evasion.

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City analysts downgrade luxury stocks as impact of Trump tariffs filter through

Deutsche Bank, the city broker, has lowered the target share price for a range of luxury firms as Trump's tariffs begin to influence analyst predictions. The broker assigned a 'Hold' rating to Richemont, LVMH, Moncler and Kering, reducing the share price for each company, as reported by City AM. "The direct impact of the tariffs is not a huge headwind in our view... However, weaker global stock markets and the broader economic uncertainty will weigh on confidence and we see this further postponing a recovery in luxury demand," analysts commented. Hermes was the sole firm to receive an upgrade, with Deutsche Bank shifting its recommendation from a 'Hold' to a 'Buy' and raising the target share price from €2,220 to €2,550 (£1,911 to £2,195). Mamta Valechha, Consumer discretionary analyst at Quilter Cheviot, stated that Hermes would benefit from its "strong pricing power and higher-end positioning" despite the inevitable single-digit price increases. "However, how the US (and global) luxury consumer responds to potentially reduced global economic growth remains unknown," Valechha added. There was a significant sell-off in luxury markets after Trump announced tariffs on April 2. Burberry, Kering, and LVMH have dropped 16.6 per cent, 16.2 per cent 12.5 per cent, respectively, since April 2. Traditionally safe bets Hermes and Ferrari have dropped 8.5 per cent and nine per cent, respectively. Analysts were initially banking on a resurgence in the luxury sector following a dip caused by the cost-of-living crisis in Europe and economic downturn in China during 2023. "It is no longer clear that the third quarter of 2024 was the nadir for luxury demand," stated analysts from Deutsche Bank. "The luxury recovery in the fourth quarter now looks likely to be the anomaly and not the trend."

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