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Comment: Government's actions are a useful first step but needs to do more

2025-08-08 11:03:55 By

It was more bad news for UK auto last week when President Donald Trump announced 25 per cent tariffs on all car imports to the US.

This will have a huge impact on the UK and EU auto industry which was already being squeezed by falling sales in China, stagnant demand in Europe and slow electric vehicle (EV) take-up. It's nothing short of a perfect storm for the auto industry.

Cars are the UK's number one goods export to the US, at £8.3 billion in the year to the end of quarter three in 2024, out of around £58 billion in total UK exports to the US.

Firms like JLR, Rolls Royce, Bentley, Aston Martin, Mini, McLaren and Morgan will be most affected. The US is the UK's largest auto export market after the EU.

There will be a particular impact on the West Midlands which is the number one exporting region to the US (think JLR and Aston Martin, for example).

Much of the UK auto industry is already operating well below capacity and the tariffs will be a further hit for a struggling industry. Production cuts and job losses are likely. The Institute For Public Policy Research puts 25,000 jobs at risk.

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That is a big underestimate as it fails to account for tipping points if plants fall below minimum viability levels and close completely, with a further impact on the supply chain.

You can double or triple that number in terms of the jobs at risk. The UK is looking to do a quick trade deal with the US to avoid tariffs hitting UK auto too much.

I think that is doable in a narrow sense on cars as the UK has a ten per cent tariff on US imports. Both sides could scrap auto tariffs completely and both would see it as a win. That has to be a key, immediate goal for the Government.

A broader trade deal to avoid Trump's ten per cent tariffs on all UK imports will be much more tricky and will see the US wanting concessions on the digital services tax, more access for US services to the UK in areas like health, and a deal on agriculture.

Think chlorinated chicken and hormone injected beef. The Government has already ruled out the latter.

To help the auto industry, Prime Minister Keir Starmer this week set out changes to the UK's Zero Emission Vehicle (ZEV) mandate.

This was set out as a response to Trump's 25 per cent tariff but was anyway on the cards after a huge outcry from industry last year over policy and a quick-round consultation by the Government.

These changes have rather cleverly been marketed as a response to Trump's Tariffs. Nevertheless, what the Government unveiled is useful as far as it goes.

The ZEV mandate policy had been inherited from the previous government and was a dog's breakfast of a policy which risked fining domestic producers for not hitting overly optimistic mandated targets, with them then likely having to buy credits from the likes of Tesla and Chinese EV producers.

Fining firms making investment in the UK was always a bad idea and giving auto makers more flexibility to hit the targets makes a lot of sense.

Another welcome change is allowing hybrids like the Toyota Prius or Range Rover Evoque hybrid to be sold through to 2035 (after the 20203 ban on pure petrol and diesel cars). Hybrids are a good first step for many people and help in the transition to electrification.

And 2035 as a target for this is fine: the average life of a car is 15 years so that still means we can be on track to get to Net Zero by 2035.

Other good news came in the form of reducing fines for non-compliance and exempting smaller producers like Aston Martin. So far, so good.

But what isn't clear is whether there is any new cash for speeding up the roll out of the charging infrastructure.

The Government ‘reaffirmed' £2.3billion for a range of objectives including infrastructure (in other words just reannounced money that was already committed).

While the government says it is on track to reach its target of 300,000 public chargers by 2030, many of these are in London and the South East.

Elsewhere, the charging network is patchy and a big deterrent to EV take up. There are also some glaring gaps in the new policy stance.

Firstly, there are no incentives to boost demand for EVs. If the Government wants to speed up the market for EVs, whacking the supply side with a big stick in the form of mandates is not enough.

Carrots are also needed for the demand side. Think of temporary VAT cuts to make EVs more attractive and boost demand. Sadly, the Government's self-imposed fiscal straight jacket rules this out.

But, even if the UK gets a trade deal with the US, Trump's tariffs will hit world trade, growth and demand for UK exports.

There will be indirect effects on UK economic growth anyway which makes hitting Rachel Reeves' eye-wateringly tight fiscal rules even more challenging.

At some point, they will need to be relaxed. Last but not least, the Government's early-awaited yet delayed industrial strategy is needed sooner rather than later.

It has been delayed by the Government while it is being repainted from green to battleship grey as the drive to re-arm gathers pace given Europe's inability to rely on the US for defence under Trump.

Boris Johnson sadly scrapped the last industrial strategy so as to ‘build back better'. Building back badly was perhaps a more apt description of what then unfolded as growth stagnated.

Putting a strategy back in place is vital to help advanced manufacturing - and automotive - on a range of issues like attracting investment into making EVs, rebuilding the supply chain (including on batteries), retraining and reskilling workers and cutting energy costs.

Starmer has said the world has changed and we need to respond. It has, and while the Government's announcements this week are welcome, much more will be needed going forwards if the auto industry is to thrive in the UK.

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Promotional products firm 4imprint reports 10% rise in profit

4imprint, the promotional products manufacturer, has announced a 10% increase in profit for 2024, outperforming the wider market and growing its market share. The company revealed to markets this morning that revenue climbed by three per cent year on year to £1.36bn, up from £1.32bn the previous year, as reported by City AM. The London-based firm reported receiving 2.12m orders in 2024, an increase from 2.09m in 2023, with the "increase in existing customer orders offsetting a decline in new customer acquisition, impacted by uncertain economic conditions." Despite a more cautious macroeconomic climate that began in the second half of 2023 and continued throughout 2024, the business continued to attract and retain high-quality customers during the year," it stated. While 4imprint's Chair, Paul Moody, acknowledged a "challenging near-term environment", he maintained that business prospects remained unchanged. "In the first two months of 2025, revenue at the order intake level was slightly down compared to the same period in 2024, reflecting continued uncertainty in the market." Despite a more cautious macroeconomic environment that began in the second half of 2023 and continued through 2024, the business continued to acquire and retain high-quality customers in the year. "It is possible that market conditions, including potential tariff impacts, may continue to influence demand in 2025. From our experience, however, as business sentiment improves, demand for promotional products increases as does our ability to gain market share," added Moody. Cavendish analyst Guy Hewett characterised the results as "another year of strong financial performance despite a challenging market backdrop". However, Hewett noted that the low order intake thus far in 2025 has led Cavendish to reduce its revenue forecast, earnings per share forecast and target share price. "We have no doubt that the group will once again accelerate market share gains and profit growth when markets recover. Investors buying now will lock in exposure to those gains," he added.

Rolls-Royce CEO's pay slashed by almost £10m despite huge rise in FTSE 100 shares

Tufan Erginbilgic, the CEO of Rolls-Royce, has experienced a significant reduction in his pay by nearly £10m, despite his successful turnaround of the FTSE 100 heavyweight. The Derby-based company's latest financial year saw Erginbilgic pocketing £4.1m, a stark contrast to the £13.6m he earned in the previous 12 months, as reported by City AM. His earlier remuneration was inflated by a £7.5m compensation for earnings lost from a former job. Another factor contributing to the drop was the decrease in Erginbilgic's annual incentive plan earnings, which fell from £4.6m to £2.5m. Rolls-Royce has now introduced a changed separate bonus and long-term incentive plan scheme for its CEO, with the first LTIP not due to vest until the end of 2026. In 2023, his hefty pay package placed him as the third highest earning FTSE 100 CEO, trailing only Astrazeneca's Pascal Soriot and Relx's Erix Engstrom. However, Erginbilgic's base salary did see an increase, rising from £875,000 to £1.1m over the year, with a further five per cent hike planned for 2025. A Rolls-Royce spokesperson said: “We delivered record results in 2024 thanks to our ongoing transformation, achieving our mid-term targets two years earlier than planned and enabling us to upgrade our guidance for 2028. It is in the interests of all stakeholders that such strong performance and progress is rewarded. UK companies must be able to attract excellent talent and reward them when they deliver.” The Turkish businessman joined Rolls-Royce in July 2022 and assumed his role at the start of 2023, following a two-decade stint at BP that ended in 2020. Since succeeding Warren East as Rolls-Royce's chief executive, Erginbilgic has seen the company's share price soar from approximately 150p to over 800p. A substantial portion of this surge occurred recently – jumping from around 610p to its current level – in the wake of the defence summit in London, where European leaders expressed their support for Ukraine and committed to increasing defence spending. At the culmination of February, City AM disclosed that Rolls-Royce had decided to restart dividend payments to its shareholders and announced a bold £1bn initiative for repurchasing shares after reporting annual profits that exceeded market forecasts. Rolls-Royce's CEO hailed for spearheading 'impressive progress'. In the company's annual report, remuneration committee chair Lord Jitesh Gadhia was quoted praising the leadership team's accomplishments: "Tufan Erginbilgic and the executive team have delivered continued improvement in performance levels with impressive progress made on the group's transformation, generating real value for shareholders." He elaborated on the future targets, saying, "Achievement of the medium-term guidance will take Rolls-Royce significantly beyond any previously achieved level of financial performance and we are on track to deliver the commitments ahead of schedule." Lord Gadhia also emphasised the importance of incentivising management: "We are determined to incentivise the management to build upon the progress made and maintain momentum."

Major manufacturer TT Electronics warns US tariffs 'could cast doubt' on trading ability

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Spirax Group reports fall in full-year profits amid restructure

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Rolls-Royce shares could rocket 50% after stellar two-year rally, analysts claim

Analysts at Bank of America have predicted that shares in engineering behemoth Rolls-Royce could surge by an additional 50% following an already impressive two-year rally. On Friday, analyst Benjamin Heelan raised his price target from 830p to 1,150p, as reported by Bloomberg, which led to a mid-day share price increase of over three per cent, as reported by City AM. This news arrived just one day after the London-listed company reinstated dividend payouts for the first time since the pandemic and announced a £1bn share buyback scheme. The appointment of CEO Tufan Erginbilgic in January 2023 marked the start of a remarkable recovery for a company that was on the brink of bankruptcy during the Covid-19 crisis. A combination of soaring travel demand and escalating military expenditure worldwide has generated significant demand for Rolls' jet engines and defence technology. Heelan noted that the firm had reaped the benefits of robust deliveries, pricing, and an enhancement in the reliability of its engines. Travel demand has remained strong over the past year, with numerous airlines, including British Airways owner IAG, reporting record profits. On Tuesday, Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer announced the largest increase in defence spending since the Cold War. From April 2027, it is set to rise to 2.5% of GDP, with a goal to reach 3% by the end of the parliament. Rolls-Royce is targeting profits of between £3.6bn and £3.9bn by 2028 and free cash flow of between £4.2bn and £4.5bn. Over the last 12 months, shares have risen by more than 100%.

Pearson Engineering works on robot mine sweeper being trialled by British Army

North East defence specialist Pearson Engineering has helped to develop a robot mine sweeper which is now being trialled by the British Army to clear explosives on the front lines. The Newcastle company, based in the famous Armstrong Works, has worked with the Defence Science and Technology Laboratory (Dstl) to create Weevil, a device which is hoped will replace current mine-clearing methods that included Trojan armoured vehicles, which require a three-person team to operate in hazardous areas. The robot mine sweeper is said to be able to clear minefields quicker and safer than present capabilities, reducing risk to soldiers on the front line and it can be operated via remote control by just one person from several miles away. The prototype – which is fitted with a mine plough to clear a safe path – has been successfully tested on a surrogate minefield in Newcastle, and the technology is now being passed to the British Army for further development and more trials. Ian Bell, CEO at Pearson Engineering, said: “We are proud to contribute to such game-changing capability. It brings together decades of development by Pearson Engineering, delivering the very best of minefield breaching technology proven around the world, and contemporary developments in teleoperation. “Work with UK MOD is an incredibly important part of our business, ensuring our troops get the latest in combat engineering capability and that we can effectively defend our nation and allies.” Luke Pollard, minister for the armed forces, said: “It won’t be a moment too soon when we no longer have to send our people directly into harm’s way to clear minefields. “This kit could tackle the deadly threat of mines in the most challenging environments, while being remotely operated by our soldiers several miles away. “It demonstrates British innovation, by British organisations, to protect British troops.” The robot was developed by the Defence Science and Technology Laboratory (DSTL) and Newcastle-based firm Pearson Engineering. The Ministry of Defence said there are no current plans to provide it to Ukraine. DSTL military adviser Major Andrew Maggs said: “Weevil is the perfect combination of tried and tested technology and modern advancements.

Bentley issues warning over China demand as profits and revenue fall

Bentley Motors has announced a decrease in profit and revenue, with its CEO attributing the decline to reduced demand in China. The luxury car manufacturer, a subsidiary of Volkswagen, reported an annual operating profit of €373m (£314m) and revenue of €2.6bn (£2.2bn), as reported by City AM. Although this profit is the sixth highest in Bentley's history, it represents a drop of over a third from the €589m recorded last year. CEO Dr Frank-Steffen Walliser informed journalists that the downturn was due to diminished demand in China, where high-end brands have been hit by lower consumer confidence. Customisation continued to bolster earnings, with unprecedented demand for bespoke models resulting in Bentley's highest-ever revenue per car, up 10 per cent year-on-year. "Despite global challenges in 2024 and the run out and replacement of three of our four model lines, financial resilience measures introduced towards the end of the last decade ensured a sixth year of consistent profitability," Walliser stated. "Looking forward to 2025, of course we continue to navigate difficult global market conditions and maintained volatile political and economic environments, however our strength of sales is strong." Bentley is in the initial stages of transitioning to an electric fleet and aims to persuade investors that there is consumer demand for a non-traditional version of its luxury models. The company plans to launch its first BEV in 2027.

Ibstock slashes dividends as profit tumbles amid 'subdued market conditions'

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Rolls-Royce has announced the reinstatement of dividends and launched a £1bn share buyback programme as its full-year profit significantly exceeded expectations. The FTSE 100 engineering behemoth, which has major UK sites in Derby and near Bristol, proposed a 6p per share dividend for investors on Thursday, marking its first payout since the onset of the pandemic, as reported by City AM. A £1bn share buyback scheme will also kick off immediately and run through 2025, according to a market statement. Shares surged over 14% in early trading as investors eagerly jumped aboard. This comes as underlying profit hit £2.5bn, comfortably surpassing a previous forecast of between £2.1bn and £2.3bn. Revenue of £17.8bn also outperformed analysts' consensus of approximately £17.3bn. Following this impressive performance, Rolls-Royce has raised its medium-term targets for profit and free cash flow. Underlying operating profit is now projected to land between £3.6bn and £3.9bn by 2028, while free cash flow is anticipated to range from £4.2bn to £4.5bn. "We are moving with pace and intensity," stated CEO Tufan Erginbilgic, who has spearheaded a remarkable turnaround in his first two years at the helm. He continued: "Based on our 2025 guidance, we now expect to deliver underlying operating profit and free cash flow within the target ranges set at our Capital Markets Day, two years earlier than planned." He concluded: "Significantly improved performance and a stronger balance sheet gives us confidence to reinstate shareholder dividends and announce a £1bn share buyback in 2025." Rolls-Royce's shares have seen a significant uptick since Erginbilgic took the helm in January 2023, driven by a potent mix of soaring travel demand and geopolitical tensions fuelling orders for its jet engines and defence technology. The company's stock price has nearly doubled over the past year and increased almost sixfold over the previous two years. "The group's turnaround has been so impressive that some of its 2027 guidance has been hit two years early, causing the group to upgrade its mid-term guidance," commented Aarin Chiekrie, an equity analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown. "Revenues are being boosted by the upward trend in engine-flying hours, which are now cruising above pre-pandemic levels. But that's just one part of the puzzle."